The Momentum of a Masterpiece

Paul Thomas Anderson (PTA), a director with 11 previous nominations and zero wins, is currently seeing his most aggressive awards trajectory yet. Following a massive haul at the 2026 Golden Globes—where the film won Best Picture (Comedy/Musical), Best Director, and Best Screenplay—forecasters at Gold Derby and The Hollywood Reporter are nearly unanimous in their prediction of a historic Oscar morning.3

Analyzing the "Big Five" Contention

The "Big Five" sweep is the ultimate hallmark of critical and industry consensus. Here is how One Battle After Another stands in each of these core categories:

1. Best Picture: The film is the undisputed frontrunner, having already won top honors from the National Board of Review and the Critics' Choice Awards.4

2. Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson is viewed as "overdue." His work on this VistaVision epic is being hailed as his most "accessible yet thematically rich" achievement.5

3. Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio is widely considered a lock for his portrayal of Bob, a role described as a career-best "carefully modulated turn."6

4. Best Actress: Breakthrough star Chase Infiniti has surged in recent weeks.7 While she faces a tough battle against Hamnet’s Jessie Buckley, many pundits believe the "sweep momentum" will carry her to the win.

5. Best Screenplay: Having already secured the Golden Globe for his script, PTA is the favorite for Best Adapted Screenplay, successfully translating a complex narrative into what critics call a "timeless story of resistance."8

The "Acting Sweep" and Record Nods

Beyond the Big Five, the film is poised to become the 16th film in history to earn nominations in all four acting categories:9

• Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio10

• Best Actress: Chase Infiniti11

• Best Supporting Actor: A dual threat with both Sean Penn and Benicio del Toro predicted to land spots.12

• Best Supporting Actress: Teyana Taylor, the current favorite to win after her Globe victory.13

Comparing the Contenders

While One Battle After Another is the consensus favorite for the win, it faces stiff competition for the total nomination count from Ryan Coogler’s Sinners.14

Conclusion

The morning of January 22, 2026, may mark the moment Paul Thomas Anderson finally sheds his "underrated" status at the Academy. With high critical scores—a 95 on Metacritic and 94% on Rotten Tomatoes—and a narrative built on decades of industry respect, One Battle After Another isn't just a nominee; it is an event.15 If the predictions hold true, PTA will join the most elite ranks of filmmaking history by the time the ceremony concludes on March 15.

FAQs

What are the "Big Five" Oscar categories?

They are Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Screenplay (Original or Adapted).16

Who is announcing the 2026 Oscar nominations?

The nominations will be announced by Danielle Brooks and Lewis Pullman on January 22, 2026, at 5:30 a.m. PT.17

Is One Battle After Another based on a book?

Yes, it is competing in the Best Adapted Screenplay category, largely influenced by Thomas Pynchon's Vineland and the history of the Weather Underground.18

Has Paul Thomas Anderson ever won an Oscar?

As of the start of the 2026 season, Anderson has 11 nominations but no wins.19 This is expected to change this year.

Where can I watch the 98th Academy Awards?

The ceremony will air live on ABC on Sunday, March 15, 2026, from the Dolby® Theatre in Hollywood.